By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects U.S. central bank interest rate policy is on hold for the time being amid a hunt for evidence that inflation pressures are easing back to the 2% target.
With a healthy job market and an uneven and slowing process of easing inflation pressures, “I believe that monetary policy has the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward, and this will likely mean holding the federal funds rate steady for some time,” Hammack said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before an event held at Columbia University.
“We have made good progress, but 2% inflation is not in sight just yet,” she said, adding “a patient approach will allow us time to monitor the trajectories for the labor market and inflation and how the economy in general is performing in the current rate environment.”
Before supporting a rate cut, Hammack said she seeks additional evidence that price pressures are easing back to 2% so long as the job market remains “healthy.” But she warned “while there are good reasons to expect that inflation will gradually come down to 2% over the medium term, this is far from a certainty, and upside risks to the inflation outlook abound.”
Hammack is one of the Fed’s newest policymakers and made waves last year when she dissented against the central bank’s December rate cut. The Fed lowered rates by a percentage point last year as it sought to adjust monetary policy to a cooling in inflation pressures. The Fed has been on pause mode as inflation’s retreat back to 2% has slowed. Meanwhile, many economists are worried that Trump administration economic policies, focused on tariffs and worker deportations, will drive inflation higher again.
Fed officials have generally argued that even with the rate cuts of last year that took the federal funds rate target to between 4.25% and 4.5%, monetary policy is still exerting restraint on the economy, which in turn should help lower inflation further.
But Hammack, who took office in August, said “policy does not strike me as being meaningfully restrictive; or, put differently, we may be close to a neutral setting already.” She also said that “broad financial conditions indices remain accommodative” and “equity market valuations are high, and the equity risk premium is near zero.”
Much of Hammack’s prepared remarks focused on regulatory issues and areas where she believed regulators needed to keep a watch on. She said building debt levels in the private credit and hedge fund sector were notable.
Hammack also expressed confidence that persistently high interest rates won’t damage the economy, noting “over long periods, the U.S. economy is resilient and would adapt to a higher interest rate environment.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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