A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift
With a U.S. government shutdown and the imposition of sweeping tariffs looming, President Donald Trump knew just what markets needed.
More tariffs.
In what’s becoming a regular ritual, Asian markets were the first to digest overnight announcements from the White House on new U.S. import duties, this time on bathroom vanities, lumber, cabinets, and other goods.
Trump’s proclamation cited “national defence” for the tariffs on foreign furniture, due to start on October 14 and following duties on trucks and drugs that go into effect on Wednesday. And there has yet to be a breakthrough in talks between Trump and congressional Democrats to forestall a government shutdown the same day.
Anxiety about a shutdown pushed safe-haven gold to a fresh record.
Data out of China and Japan hinted at the toll that trade uncertainty is wrecking on the region’s biggest economies. China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, official data showed, while a separate report showed Japan’s factory output fell more than expected in August.
The Australian dollar added slightly to gains on the day after the nation’s central bank held rates steady, as widely expected, and said uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated.
Asian share markets took it all in stride, with MSCI broadest ex-Japan gauge adding to its more than 5% jump in September, the best in a year.
If Washington does go dark, it would halt the release on Friday of all-important non-farm payrolls data for September, a key input for the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve.
That puts the spotlight on other U.S. labour reports, including today’s JOLTS data. Analysts expect the figures to show job openings held firm at around 7.18 million in August.
Equity contracts pointed to an opening in the red for European markets. Pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.07%, German DAX futures slid 0.06%, and FTSE futures edged 0.08% lower. U.S. futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were flat.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
– U.S. consumer confidence for September, JOLTS job openings for August
– Flash CPIs for Germany, France
– British Q2 GDP
– Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed President Susan Collins
(Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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