Trump’s tariffs had little impact on GDP in 2025, but raised revenue, academic paper finds

WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs last year had only a minimal impact on U.S. economic output but raised significant federal revenue and contributed to a ​further U.S.-China trade decoupling, a new Brookings Institution academic paper ‌showed on Wednesday.

The paper analyzing the short-run impact of Trump’s tariffs found that their “net welfare impact” on the U.S. economy was a range of adding 0.1% of GDP to subtracting 0.13% of GDP, depending on assumptions about changing terms of trade, ‌including ​the extent to which demand shifts to ⁠domestically produced goods.

Here are some ⁠other key findings of the study conducted by University of California-Los Angeles economist Pablo Fajgelbaum and Yale University economist Amit Khandelwal:

(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing ​by Lincoln Feast)