BERLIN, Dec 11 (Reuters) – Ageing Germany’s population could shrink by almost 10 million people, to around 75 million, by 2070 as the baby boomer generation gives way to much smaller cohorts, the statistics office said.
In its latest population forecast, published on Thursday, the office said it expected one in four people in Germany to be aged over 67 in a decade’s time.
By 2038, almost 21 million people, or 27% of the population, will be of pension age, it said.
The forecasts come as businesses in the European Union’s most populous country complain of unprecedented labour shortages and politicians struggle to contain a populist backlash over immigration that has helped propel the nativist Alternative for Germany to first place in many polls.
WELFARE SYSTEM UNDER PRESSURE
Germany, which alongside Italy already ranks as Europe’s most aged country, also faces increasing pressure on the sustainability of its social systems.
While currently there are 33 pensioners for every 100 people in work, that number could rise to 61 for every 100 by 2070 in the worst case.
“There would then be less than two contributors per pension benefits recipient,” said Karsten Lammer, head of the office’s population department. “Pressure on the welfare system is growing.”
Germany’s population would rise in only two of 27 scenarios the agency considered – both involving high immigration levels and rising birth rates.
(Writing by Thomas Escritt, Editing by Miranda Murray)
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