Nov 4 (Reuters) – The global oil market is moving back into surplus after months of disruption caused by conflict in the Middle East, as recovering exports from the region and weaker global demand combine to push supply ahead of consumption, JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday.
• JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average of 1.3 million bpd
• The bank said inventories and trade flows both indicate that excess barrels are returning to the market, with global crude imports rising to 44.9 million bpd in October, up 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier
• A key factor behind the shift has been the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports to around 20.7 million bpd from a low of 9.8 million bpd in March, although volumes remain below pre-war levels
• Rising output in other regions has also contributed to the surplus, with the bank estimating that Latin America alone is supplying about 1.5 million bpd more crude than a year ago, led by Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina
• The bank said global demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million bpd since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices and supply disruptions curbed consumption
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)
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